Tumor mutation burden-assisted risk stratification for papillary thyroid cancer.

[PURPOSE] Although papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) has a low mortality rate, the rate of recurrence remains relatively high. This study aims to develop a molecular signature to predict the recurrence of PTC.

[METHODS] A total of 333 PTC patients' data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were included. We calculated tumor mutation burden (TMB) and analyzed the mutation status of BRAF and TERT promoter.

[RESULTS] Tumor recurrence occurred in 17 of 263 cases in TMB-L patients versus 14 of 70 cases in TMB-H patients (hazard ratio [HR], 3.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75-7.21; P < 0.001). The HR for recurrence in TMB-H patients remained significant after adjustment for classical clinicopathologic factors (patient age, gender, extrathyroidal extension and lymph node metastasis). These clinical factors had no effect on recurrence rate in TMB-L patients, but had a strong adverse effect on the prognosis of TMB-H patients. Compared with TMB-L patients lacking mutation, the HR (95% CI) of recurrence for TMB-H patients with coexisting BRAF V600E and/or TERT C228/250 T mutations was 6.68 (2.41-18.57), which remained significant after adjustment for clinicopathological factors. The mutation status of BRAF V600E and TERT C228/250 T had little effect on PTC recurrence in TMB-L patients. Either of the mutation was associated with high recurrence rate in TMB-H patients.

[CONCLUSIONS] The presence of BRAF V600E and/or TERT promoter mutations denotes a high risk of recurrence in TMB-H patients. This represents a powerful molecular prognostic genotype that can help predict patients with the highest risk of recurrence.