Trend analysis and projection of the gastric cancer disease burden in Taiwan during 1990-2021: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.
[BACKGROUND] Gastric cancer is a serious health threat to people in Taiwan.
APA
Yang X, Chen S, et al. (2025). Trend analysis and projection of the gastric cancer disease burden in Taiwan during 1990-2021: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.. PloS one, 20(9), e0331506. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0331506
MLA
Yang X, et al.. "Trend analysis and projection of the gastric cancer disease burden in Taiwan during 1990-2021: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2021.." PloS one, vol. 20, no. 9, 2025, pp. e0331506.
PMID
40938893
Abstract
[BACKGROUND] Gastric cancer is a serious health threat to people in Taiwan. This study reports gastric cancer burden and trends in Taiwan, from 1990 to 2021, and projects the incidence and mortality trends through 2036.
[METHODS] Data on gastric cancer burden in Taiwan came from the 2021 GBD database. Trend changes were evaluated via joinpoint analysis, with the Age-Period-Cohort model estimating age, period, and cohort influences. Decomposition analysis measured contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological factors, and the BAPC model forecast future burden.
[RESULTS] Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) of gastric cancer in Taiwan all showed a decreasing trend. In terms of absolute burden, the number of incident cases in 2021 was 4,839 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4,272-5,352), representing a 41.20% increase, prevalent cases reached 9,835 (95% UI: 8,664-11,032), a 60.36% rise, deaths totaled 3,799 (95% UI: 3,345-4,220), up by 29.17%, and DALYs were 79,425 (95% UI: 71,168-87,813), with a 0.19% decrease. A significant gender disparity was observed, with males bearing a heavier burden. Projections indicate that incident cases and deaths will continue to rise through 2036.
[CONCLUSIONS] Across the past 32 years, gastric cancer in Taiwan has exhibited a declining relative burden, yet the absolute burden has risen consistently and is forecast to keep increasing over the next 15 years. Precision risk control measures and context-specific public health policies are required to alleviate this burden.
[METHODS] Data on gastric cancer burden in Taiwan came from the 2021 GBD database. Trend changes were evaluated via joinpoint analysis, with the Age-Period-Cohort model estimating age, period, and cohort influences. Decomposition analysis measured contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological factors, and the BAPC model forecast future burden.
[RESULTS] Between 1990 and 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) of gastric cancer in Taiwan all showed a decreasing trend. In terms of absolute burden, the number of incident cases in 2021 was 4,839 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4,272-5,352), representing a 41.20% increase, prevalent cases reached 9,835 (95% UI: 8,664-11,032), a 60.36% rise, deaths totaled 3,799 (95% UI: 3,345-4,220), up by 29.17%, and DALYs were 79,425 (95% UI: 71,168-87,813), with a 0.19% decrease. A significant gender disparity was observed, with males bearing a heavier burden. Projections indicate that incident cases and deaths will continue to rise through 2036.
[CONCLUSIONS] Across the past 32 years, gastric cancer in Taiwan has exhibited a declining relative burden, yet the absolute burden has risen consistently and is forecast to keep increasing over the next 15 years. Precision risk control measures and context-specific public health policies are required to alleviate this burden.
MeSH Terms
Humans; Stomach Neoplasms; Taiwan; Male; Female; Global Burden of Disease; Middle Aged; Aged; Incidence; Adult; Prevalence; Disability-Adjusted Life Years; Aged, 80 and over; Cost of Illness; Pattern Analysis, Machine
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