A Nomogram for Predicting Metachronous Gastric Cancer After Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection of Early Gastric Cancer Following Successful Eradication.

[PURPOSE] Due to the preservation of the entire stomach after endoscopic resection, the occurrence of metachronous gastric cancer (MGC) remains a possibility. In this study, we investigated the incidence and risk factors for MGC in patients with early gastric cancer who underwent endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) and successfully eradicated .

[MATERIALS AND METHODS] A retrospective analysis was conducted of 1,191 patients who underwent ESD and successfully eradicated at the Affiliated Drum Tower Hospital of Nanjing University. Endoscopic surveillance was performed at 3, 6, and 12 months post-resection, and annually thereafter. MGC was defined as the development of a new cancer at a site other than the primary gastric cancer site, at least 1 year after the initial endoscopic resection.

[RESULTS] A total of 77 patients were diagnosed with MGC during a median follow-up of 41.5 months. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a 5-year cumulative incidence of MGC of 9.4% after successful eradication. Multivariate analysis of the training set using Cox proportional hazards models identified male sex, severe atrophic gastritis, multiple gastric cancers before eradication, and smoking history as independent risk factors for MGC. The nomogram exhibited favorable discrimination, with area under the curves of 0.767 and 0.822 in the training set and 0.724 and 0.745 in the testing set at 3 and 5 years, respectively.

[CONCLUSIONS] Patients with gastric cancer who undergo endoscopic resection, even after successful eradication, should undergo annual and continuous endoscopic surveillance for MGC.