Radiomics with Machine Learning Improves the Prediction of Microscopic Peritumoral Small Cancer Foci and Early Recurrence in Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

[RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES] This study aimed to develop an interpretable machine learning model using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics features to predict preoperative microscopic peritumoral small cancer foci (MSF) and explore its relationship with early recurrence in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

[METHODS] A total of 1049 patients from three hospitals were divided into a training set (Hospital 1: 614 cases), a test set (Hospital 2: 248 cases), and a validation set (Hospital 3: 187 cases). Independent risk factors from clinical and MRI features were identified using univariate and multivariate logistic regression to build a clinicoradiological model. MRI radiomics features were then selected using methods like least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LassoCV) and modeled with various machine learning algorithms, choosing the best-performing model as the radiomics model. The clinical and radiomics features were combined to form a fusion model. Model performance was evaluated by comparing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC) values, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) values assessed improvements in predictive efficacy. The model's prognostic value was verified using Kaplan-Meier analysis. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was used to interpret how the model makes predictions.

[RESULTS] Three models were developed as follows: Clinical Radiology, XGBoost, and Clinical XGBoost. XGBoost was selected as the final model for predicting MSF, with AUCs of 0.841, 0.835, and 0.817 in the training, test, and validation sets, respectively. These results were comparable to the Clinical XGBoost model (0.856, 0.826, 0.837) and significantly better than the Clinical Radiology model (0.688, 0.561, 0.613). Additionally, the XGBoost model effectively predicted early recurrence in HCC patients.

[CONCLUSION] This study successfully developed an interpretable XGBoost machine learning model based on MRI radiomics features to predict preoperative MSF and early recurrence in HCC patients.