[Trend analysis and prediction of cancer incidence and mortality in the labor force population of Zhejiang Province cancer registry areas].

To analyze the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors among the labor force in cancer registration areas of Zhejiang Province in 2021, as well as the trend from 2000 to 2021, and predict the burden in 2031, in order to provide reference for precise prevention and control. The data of malignant tumors among the population aged 15-64 in Zhejiang cancer registration areas from 2000 to 2021 were collected. The incidence and mortality rates by gender, age group, urban-rural region, and major cancer types were analyzed. The age-standardized incidence (mortality) rates were calculated using the 2000 China standard population composition and Segi's world population composition, respectively. The Joinpoint regression model was used to estimate the temporal trends and to calculate the average annual percentage change (AAPC), and the auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) was applied to predict the burden in 2031. In 2021, 60 152 new cases of malignant tumors were reported among the labor force in the cancer registration areas of Zhejiang Province, accounting for 51.6% of all newly diagnosed malignant tumors across all age groups, while 10 285 deaths were recorded, representing 25.4% of the total. The age-standardized incidence rates of China was 283.4/10, and the age-standardized mortality rates of China was 39.5/10. The incidence rate in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas, while the mortality rate was lower in urban areas. The male-to-female ratio of the age-standardized incidence rate of world was 0.64:1, and the ratio of the age-standardized mortality rate of world was 1.76∶1. The top three cancers by incidence rate were thyroid cancer, lung cancer and breast cancer in females, while the top three by mortality rate were lung cancer, liver cancer and breast cancer in females. From 2000 to 2021, the incidence rate of malignant tumors in this population showed a significant upward trend (AAPC=3.61%, ＜0.001), particularly accelerating after 2013; while the mortality rate exhibited a general downward trend (AAPC=-1.60%, ＜0.001). The upward trends were most pronounced for thyroid cancer and prostate cancer in males, with AAPCs of 15.62% and 15.30%, respectively, while thyroid cancer in females showed the most significant growth, with an AAPC of 15.59% (all ＜0.05). Cancers with concurrent increases in both incidence and mortality included prostate cancer and colorectal cancer in males, and cervical cancer and lymphoma in females. ARIMA model projections indicated that by 2031, the age-standardized incidence rate of world would rise to 438/10, while the mortality rate would decline to 39/10. From 2000 to 2021, malignant tumors among the labor force in cancer registration areas of Zhejiang Province exhibits an upward trend in incidence and a downward trend in mortality. Efforts should continue to advance early detection and treatment of tumors, vaccination, weight management, and healthy lifestyle practices.