Burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer based on GBD 2021.

[BACKGROUND] Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. This study provides comprehensive estimates of TBL cancer prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) with projections to 2040, stratified by gender, age, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI).

[METHODS] Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, analyzing 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Age-standardized rates were stratified by gender, age, and SDI. Trends were quantified using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and future burden was projected using Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling.

[RESULTS] In 2021, TBL cancer caused 3.25 million (95% uncertainty interval: 2.95–3.56 million) prevalent cases globally, with an age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of 37.3 (33.8–40.8) per 100,000 population. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) was 26.4 (23.9–29.1) per 100,000, and the age-standardized death rate (ASMR) was 23.5 (21.2–25.8) per 100,000, accounting for 2.02 million (1.82–2.22 million) deaths. The age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) was 533 (480.1–586.4) per 100,000. East Asia exhibited the highest ASPR (57.1 per 100,000), ASIR (43.4), ASMR (38.5), and ASDR (869.5). The high-middle SDI region showed the highest overall burden, while the low-SDI region had the lowest. Across all metrics, males had consistently higher rates than females, though the gender gap is projected to narrow by 2040.

[CONCLUSION] TBL cancer remains a substantial global health burden with significant SDI-related and geographic disparities. Targeted public health interventions, particularly in high-burden regions such as East Asia, are urgently needed to address these inequalities.