European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2026: the levelling of female lung cancer mortality.

[BACKGROUND] We provided updated cancer mortality estimates for 2026 in the European Union (EU) and its five most populous countries, with a focus on lung cancer.

[MATERIALS AND METHODS] Cancer death certifications and population data were obtained from the World Health Organization and United Nations databases. For the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the UK, we derived data for all cancers combined and major cancer sites since 1970. Linear regression models, based on the most recent age-specific trends identified by Poisson joinpoint regression, were used to estimate deaths in 2026. The number of averted deaths between 1989 and 2026 was computed by applying the 1988 peak rate to subsequent populations.

[RESULTS] For 2026, we estimated ∼1 230 000 EU cancer deaths, corresponding to age-standardised rates of 114.1/100 000 males (-7.8% versus 2020-2022) and 74.7/100 000 females (-5.9%). In the EU countries and the whole EU, favourable trends are predicted for most major cancers, except female pancreatic cancer. In the UK, predicted rates are also favourable, except female colorectal cancer. Lung cancer mortality continues to decrease markedly among males, while we predicted a levelling off of rates, around 12.5/100 000, among females in all considered countries and the whole of EU, except for Spain (+2.4%). Among females, lung cancer mortality declines are confined to those aged <65 years, while unfavourable trends continued in older age groups. Around 7.3 (5.0 in males, 2.3 in females) million total cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU since the peak observed in 1988. The corresponding figure for lung cancer is 1.8 million among males, while no averted deaths were recorded among females.

[CONCLUSION] Lung cancer mortality predictions for 2026 indicate a levelling off among EU females, with age- and country-specific differences. Mortality trends in ASRs for most cancers remain favourable in the EU and the UK, though the absolute number of cancer deaths is not declining due to population ageing.