Predicting reoperation and readmission for head and neck free flap patients using machine learning.

[BACKGROUND] To develop machine learning (ML) models predicting unplanned readmission and reoperation among patients undergoing free flap reconstruction for head and neck (HN) surgery.

[METHODS] Data were extracted from the 2012-2019 NSQIP database. eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was used to develop ML models predicting 30-day readmission and reoperation based on demographic and perioperative factors. Models were validated using 2019 data and evaluated.

[RESULTS] Four-hundred and sixty-six (10.7%) of 4333 included patients were readmitted within 30 days of initial surgery. The ML model demonstrated 82% accuracy, 63% sensitivity, 85% specificity, and AUC of 0.78. Nine-hundred and four (18.3%) of 4931 patients underwent reoperation within 30 days of index surgery. The ML model demonstrated 62% accuracy, 51% sensitivity, 64% specificity, and AUC of 0.58.

[CONCLUSION] XGBoost was used to predict 30-day readmission and reoperation for HN free flap patients. Findings may be used to assist clinicians and patients in shared decision-making and improve data collection in future database iterations.