A Framework for Locally Imputing and Predicting Biomarker Trajectories Under Irregular Monitoring: Application to Chronic Myeloid Leukemia.
1/5 보강
Irregular monitoring and missing data limit the utility of longitudinal biomarkers in real-world practice.
APA
Montano-Campos F, Heagerty P, et al. (2026). A Framework for Locally Imputing and Predicting Biomarker Trajectories Under Irregular Monitoring: Application to Chronic Myeloid Leukemia.. Research square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8420996/v1
MLA
Montano-Campos F, et al.. "A Framework for Locally Imputing and Predicting Biomarker Trajectories Under Irregular Monitoring: Application to Chronic Myeloid Leukemia.." Research square, 2026.
PMID
41542066 ↗
Abstract 한글 요약
Irregular monitoring and missing data limit the utility of longitudinal biomarkers in real-world practice. We developed a generalizable framework that combines interval-aligned preprocessing, localized multiple imputation, and machine-learning forecasting to generate complete trajectories and predict future biomarker values under routine clinical conditions. Using BCR::ABL1 monitoring in chronic myeloid leukemia as a case study, we aligned measurements to 90-day intervals, applied a windowed, uncertainty-propagating imputation strategy, and trained recurrent neural network (RNN) and XGBoost models to forecast values three and six months ahead. Full Information models achieved RMSEs of 1.22-1.24 for 3-month predictions-well below the biomarker's observed variability-and maintained accuracy even when the most recent visit was intentionally omitted, simulating extended follow-up. This framework preserves local temporal structure, supports individualized monitoring decisions, and is directly adaptable to other continuous biomarkers measured under irregular real-world schedules.