Nomogram for predicting overall survival of metastatic pancreatic cancer patients based on HBV infection and inflammatory-nutritional biomarkers.

[PURPOSE] To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer.

[METHODS] This retrospective study included 236 patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer treated at Guangxi Medical University Cancer Hospital between October 2013 and October 2022. Patients were grouped according to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection status. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to identify the prognostic factors independently associated with overall survival. Results were used to build a nomogram, which was assessed through internal validation using bootstrap resampling.

[RESULTS] Patients in the HBV-positive group (N = 37) showed significantly better overall survival than those in the HBV-negative group (N=199; = 0.014). Overall survival was independently associated with the following factors: HBV infection status, sex, chemotherapy, metastatic sites, a combined index of hemoglobin, albumin, lymphocytes, and platelets, neutrophil-albumin ratio, as well as levels of CA125. The nomogram showed good predictive power, with an area under the curve of 0.808 for the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic. Calibration and decision curve analyses indicated good calibration and clinical usefulness of the nomogram for predicting the overall survival of patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer.

[CONCLUSION] A nomogram based on the HBV infection status and inflammatory nutritional markers may help predict the overall survival of patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer and guide personalized clinical treatment.