The Population-Level Prevalence of Exocrine Pancreas Insufficiency and the Subsequent Risk of Pancreatic Cancer.

[OBJECTIVES] The aim of this study was to study the prevalence of exocrine pancreas insufficiency (EPI) at a population level and the subsequent risk of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).

[MATERIALS AND METHODS] Using TriNetX (a database of over 79 million US residents), we included patients ≥18 years with EPI (identified via ICD-10 codes) and continuous follow-up from 2016-2022. Patients with prior pancreas resection and PDAC before an EPI diagnosis were excluded. The primary outcome was EPI prevalence. Secondary outcomes included imaging utilization, PDAC risk, and pancreatic enzyme replacement therapy (PERT) utilization. We performed 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) of patients with EPI versus patients without an EPI diagnosis.

[RESULTS] The population prevalence of EPI was 0.8% (n = 24,080) with a mean age of 55.6 years. After PSM, PDAC risk among patients with EPI was twice as high compared with patients without EPI (aHR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.66-2.36). This risk persisted even after excluding patients with a history of acute or chronic pancreatitis (adjusted odds ratio, 4.25; 95% CI, 2.99-6.04). Only 58% (n = 13, 390) of patients with EPI received PERT. No difference was observed in PDAC risk between patients with EPI on PERT and those not on PERT (aHR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.95-1.26; P = 0.17).

[CONCLUSIONS] Despite a low prevalence, patients with EPI may have a higher risk of PDAC, and majority with EPI were not on PERT. PERT did not impact incident PDAC risk after an EPI diagnosis.