Comparative trends in pancreatic cancer burden and risk factors in the USA and China (1990-2021): insights from GBD analysis.
[BACKGROUND] Pancreatic cancer (PC) remains a lethal malignancy with rising global incidence, yet disparities in risk profiles between high-income and transitioning economies are poorly characterized.
- 95% CI 0.50–0.94
APA
Pa C, Shen S, et al. (2025). Comparative trends in pancreatic cancer burden and risk factors in the USA and China (1990-2021): insights from GBD analysis.. BMC gastroenterology, 25(1), 879. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12876-025-04470-1
MLA
Pa C, et al.. "Comparative trends in pancreatic cancer burden and risk factors in the USA and China (1990-2021): insights from GBD analysis.." BMC gastroenterology, vol. 25, no. 1, 2025, pp. 879.
PMID
41275141
Abstract
[BACKGROUND] Pancreatic cancer (PC) remains a lethal malignancy with rising global incidence, yet disparities in risk profiles between high-income and transitioning economies are poorly characterized. This study compared PC burden trends and attributable risk factors in China and the USA (1990–2021), offering evidence for region-specific prevention.
[METHODS] we calculated age-standardized incidence/mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR), with all estimates reported as point values and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Joinpoint regression identified temporal inflection points, and future burdens (2022–2030) were projected via ARIMA modeling. Decomposition analysis quantified contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiology.
[RESULTS] From 1990 to 2021, China’s ASIR increased from 4.54 (95%UI: 3.84–5.29) to 5.64 (95%UI: 4.52–6.84), representing a 24.2% rise (AAPC: 0.72%, 95%CI: 0.50–0.94), while the USA increased from 9.33 (95%UI: 8.77–9.65) to 10.33 (95%UI: 9.53–10.80) (+ 10.7%, AAPC: 0.33%, 95%CI: 0.14–0.52), driven predominantly by aging (55.7% contribution). Smoking accounted for 28.33% (95%UI: 26.03–30.62) of male PC deaths in China, while metabolic risks dominated in the USA, with 36.41% (95%UI: 4.77–63.81) attributed to high fasting plasma glucose. According to ARIMA forecasts, China’s ASIR is projected to increase to 5.95 (95%CI: 5.61–6.30) per 100,000 by 2030, which indicates a reduction in the disparity between China and the USA, where the ASIR is expected to reach 10.62 (95%CI: 10.20–11.04) per 100,000.
[CONCLUSION] Divergent risk drivers necessitate tailored policies: tobacco taxation and smoke-free legislation in China; obesity prevention and glycemic control in the USA. Global prioritization of early detection technologies is critical to mitigate projected mortality.
[SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION] The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-025-04470-1.
[METHODS] we calculated age-standardized incidence/mortality rates (ASIR/ASMR), with all estimates reported as point values and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Joinpoint regression identified temporal inflection points, and future burdens (2022–2030) were projected via ARIMA modeling. Decomposition analysis quantified contributions of aging, population growth, and epidemiology.
[RESULTS] From 1990 to 2021, China’s ASIR increased from 4.54 (95%UI: 3.84–5.29) to 5.64 (95%UI: 4.52–6.84), representing a 24.2% rise (AAPC: 0.72%, 95%CI: 0.50–0.94), while the USA increased from 9.33 (95%UI: 8.77–9.65) to 10.33 (95%UI: 9.53–10.80) (+ 10.7%, AAPC: 0.33%, 95%CI: 0.14–0.52), driven predominantly by aging (55.7% contribution). Smoking accounted for 28.33% (95%UI: 26.03–30.62) of male PC deaths in China, while metabolic risks dominated in the USA, with 36.41% (95%UI: 4.77–63.81) attributed to high fasting plasma glucose. According to ARIMA forecasts, China’s ASIR is projected to increase to 5.95 (95%CI: 5.61–6.30) per 100,000 by 2030, which indicates a reduction in the disparity between China and the USA, where the ASIR is expected to reach 10.62 (95%CI: 10.20–11.04) per 100,000.
[CONCLUSION] Divergent risk drivers necessitate tailored policies: tobacco taxation and smoke-free legislation in China; obesity prevention and glycemic control in the USA. Global prioritization of early detection technologies is critical to mitigate projected mortality.
[SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION] The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-025-04470-1.