Preoperative prediction of central neck metastasis in patients with clinical T1-2N0 papillary thyroid carcinoma.

[BACKGROUND] Central neck metastasis (CNM) is common in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). However, the prediction of CNM risk remains poorly defined, especially for patients with clinically negative lymph nodes. We developed a preoperative clinical nomogram to predict CNM risk in patients with clinical T1-2N0 (cT1-2N0) PTC.

[METHODS] Data from 436 patients with unifocal cT1-2N0 PTC were available. We analyzed the association between preoperative variables and CNM using univariate and multivariate logistic regression and developed a clinical nomogram based on the multivariate regression model. The nomogram was validated externally using an independent dataset.

[RESULTS] The CNM rate was 25.5%. Three clinical variables were associated with CNM, including age, gender, and tumor size. We built a CNM nomogram integrating these three variables. It had a poor index of internal discrimination (C-index, 0.655; 95% CI 0.596-0.715) and a poor index of external discrimination (C-index, 0.690; 95% CI 0.611-0.769).

[CONCLUSIONS] We developed a preoperative nomogram to quantify the risk of CNM in unifocal cT1-2N0 PTC patients. However, our data showed that preoperative clinical parameters were not able to accurately predict the likelihood of CNM. Other variables need to be investigated to improve the prediction capability of this nomogram.