Long-Term Outcomes After Guideline-Recommended Treatment of Men With Prostate Cancer.

[BACKGROUND] Data on long-term outcomes for men with prostate cancer treated according to current guidelines are limited. We aimed to estimate the long-term risk of death from prostate cancer and other causes in men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer who received primary treatment according to current guidelines.

[METHODS] Men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer registered in the National Prostate Cancer Register of Sweden from 2000 to 2020, who received primary treatment according to NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology (NCCN Guidelines) for Prostate Cancer, Version 4.2023, were included and followed until December 31, 2022. The risk of death from prostate cancer and other causes up to 30 years was estimated according to risk category and life expectancy using a state transition simulation model.

[RESULTS] A total of 62,839 men received primary treatment according to the NCCN Guidelines. The simulated 15-year prostate cancer mortality per risk category ranged from 5.5% (95% CI, 4.8%-6.2%) in men with low-risk cancer to 22% (95% CI, 21%-24%) in men with very high-risk cancer. Simulated 30-year prostate cancer mortality ranged from 12% (95% CI, 10%-14%) in men with low-risk cancer to 30% (95% CI, 29%-32%) in men with very high-risk cancer, whereas death from other causes ranged from 77% (95% CI, 74%-80%) to 63% (95% CI, 59%-67%), respectively.

[CONCLUSIONS] Men with nonmetastatic prostate cancer who received primary treatment according to current guidelines were up to 6 times more likely to die of other causes than from their cancer. These estimates provide realistic but high expectations of the outcomes of modern treatment and can serve as benchmarks for clinical outcome reporting.