Conditional survival after liver resection for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma.

Conditional survival (CS) is a measure of prognosis of patients who have already survived several years since diagnosis. However, few studies have investigated the CS of patients who underwent liver resection (LR) for early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We enrolled 942 consecutive patients who underwent LR for HCC with pathology-defined American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) 7th edition stage 1 or 2 disease. The three-year CS was calculated as CS = S(x + 3)/S(x) and represented the probability of surviving an additional three years, given that the patient had already survived x years. The one-, three-, and five-year survival rates were 97.1%, 86.7%, and 76.1%, respectively, and were lower in cases with AJCC stage 2 disease, alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥ 20 ng/ml, presence of cirrhosis, anti-hepatitis C virus positivity, age > 65 years, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of > 9. However, the three-year CS indicated that these variables were associated with shortened survival only in the first two years. From the third year after LR, the probability of survival of patients was similar between subgroups. CS is useful for providing a dynamic evaluation of survival during postoperative follow-up.