The impact of circulating tumor DNA on the prognosis of liver cancer and its predictive value: a meta analysis.
[BACKGROUND] ctDNA is a promising biomarker in oncology.
- p-value p < 0.0001
- 95% CI 1.96-2.78
- 연구 설계 meta-analysis
APA
Wu B, Ke S, et al. (2026). The impact of circulating tumor DNA on the prognosis of liver cancer and its predictive value: a meta analysis.. Frontiers in genetics, 17, 1767755. https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2026.1767755
MLA
Wu B, et al.. "The impact of circulating tumor DNA on the prognosis of liver cancer and its predictive value: a meta analysis.." Frontiers in genetics, vol. 17, 2026, pp. 1767755.
PMID
41757268
Abstract
[BACKGROUND] ctDNA is a promising biomarker in oncology. However, its prognostic and predictive value in HCC remains underexplored. This meta-analysis aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of ctDNA in HCC and its predictive value for recurrence.
[METHODS] A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed following PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI were searched up to 1 June 2025, for studies assessing ctDNA in HCC patients with reported survival outcomes or predictive accuracy. Studies reporting hazard ratios for overall or disease-free survival, or AUCs for prediction, were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Meta-analyses used random- or fixed-effects models depending on heterogeneity, with sensitivity analyses performed to assess robustness.
[RESULTS] A total of 219 records were screened from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI, and 8 studies comprising 1,907 patients were included. ctDNA positivity was significantly associated with poorer OS, with a pooled HR of 2.34 (95% CI 1.96-2.78; p < 0.0001). Moderate heterogeneity was observed (I = 32.2%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of this finding. Two studies assessed the predictive value of ctDNA for RFS, yielding a pooled AUC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.47-0.86; I = 65.7%). Discriminative accuracy was higher when ctDNA was detected postoperatively (AUC range: 0.57-0.77), suggesting its potential role in identifying minimal residual disease.
[CONCLUSION] ctDNA is associated with adverse prognosis in HCC and may offer moderate predictive accuracy for recurrence. Standardized protocols for sampling and analysis are required to facilitate broader clinical translation.
[METHODS] A systematic review and meta-analysis were performed following PRISMA guidelines. PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI were searched up to 1 June 2025, for studies assessing ctDNA in HCC patients with reported survival outcomes or predictive accuracy. Studies reporting hazard ratios for overall or disease-free survival, or AUCs for prediction, were included. Two reviewers independently screened studies and assessed quality using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS). Meta-analyses used random- or fixed-effects models depending on heterogeneity, with sensitivity analyses performed to assess robustness.
[RESULTS] A total of 219 records were screened from PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and CNKI, and 8 studies comprising 1,907 patients were included. ctDNA positivity was significantly associated with poorer OS, with a pooled HR of 2.34 (95% CI 1.96-2.78; p < 0.0001). Moderate heterogeneity was observed (I = 32.2%). Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of this finding. Two studies assessed the predictive value of ctDNA for RFS, yielding a pooled AUC of 0.66 (95% CI 0.47-0.86; I = 65.7%). Discriminative accuracy was higher when ctDNA was detected postoperatively (AUC range: 0.57-0.77), suggesting its potential role in identifying minimal residual disease.
[CONCLUSION] ctDNA is associated with adverse prognosis in HCC and may offer moderate predictive accuracy for recurrence. Standardized protocols for sampling and analysis are required to facilitate broader clinical translation.
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